Tales Of Intrigue

Photo courtesy Vice.com

Events here in Jakarta have stirred up quite a bit of interest, with a ton-and-a-half of email and well over 500 readers all trying to get a handle on what happened yesterday.  The questions and hits have come from every continent but Antarctica asking what happened and what next?

Well, let's see if I can boil this down to the marrow.

Jakarta's Governor Ahok, a man of Chinese descent and Christian - only the second in history to hold the office - was found guilty of blasphemy against al-Qur'an and sentenced to two years in jail, to start immediately despite his intention to appeal.  He was taken into custody and sent to Cipinang prison in East Jakarta, but later last night was moved to the custody of TNI - the Indonesian army - for "safety" reasons.

Vice Governor Djarot was advanced to acting governor until the end of the term in October, when the governor-elect, Anies, will be sworn in.

The blasphemy charge was based on a speech Ahok gave back in September to a group of supporters.  The speech was recorded on video, then edited out of context and mistranscribed to mangle the Governor's words and meaning.

The actual verse in question is from the book Al Maidan 51, and is translated into English (only Arabic is considered the true Word of Allah) as:

"O you who have faith!  Do not take the Jews and the Christians as masters; they are master of each other/  Any of you who submit to them is indeed one of them.  Indeed, Allah does not guide the wrongdoing lot.

Setting aside the long historic antagonism between Christians and Jews, this has frequently, especially by hardliners, been interpreted to mean that Muslims may not have any non-Muslim over them, whether it be political, social or religious in nature.

Thus, it has been interpreted to mean that even in a secular republic, such as Indonesia, where the Constitution recognizes five religions on equal footing (Judaism not among them), Muslims may not allow a non-Muslim to be elected to a government office.  Never mind the concept of a public servant being below the common citizen, not above.

In any event, Ahok was reported to have said to the crowd that they shouldn't be "deceived" into thinking that this verse refers to office holders in a republican form of government.  It only means that a Muslim should not serve a master who is non-Muslim, nor should he accept religious instruction from a non-Muslim.

Well, the choice of the word "deceived" set off a shit storm.  Ahok was accused of insulting al-Quran by misinterpreting the words and using scripture for political purposes.  I don't know.  I wasn't there.  All I can say it what was reported in a video that I know is not an actual representation of the moment (it was edited) and a transcript that even the man who did it admitted was not accurate.

At any rate, one of the most honest and hard-working politicians, certainly in my memory, who did an amazing amount of good for the city of Jakarta in the four years he served, is now in jail for two years under highly questionable circumstances.

First of all, the documentation is suspect.  That much has already been stated.  Second is the question of whether a non-Muslim can be said to blaspheme a book that is not sacred to his own religion?  Blasphemy is typically limited to believers.  Third, what are the motivations behind the conviction?

It is this last question that has caused so much consternation.  You see, Ahok was originally elected Vice Governor under the current president Jokowi.  They were a team who came riding into town on a populist/reformist wave in 2012, from the city of Yogyakarta, where they were widely heralded as having cleaned up local government and ridding the city of entrenched corruption.

They were elected governor and vice governor together in Jakarta.  Two years later, Jokowi won the presidency and Ahok took over as governor.  During his tenure, the city buses actually started running on a schedule, the mass transit system was overhauled and an MRT system was inaugurated, city employees were made to show up on time and work full days, and corruption declined precipitously.

When Jokowi ran for president, he was opposed by a man named Prabowo.  Prabowo is widely considered to be part of the Establishment: a former general in the army and one of the deep crony insiders.  One could think of this match-up as similar to Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton.

Prabowo was so sure that he would win that the loss led to court battles and media slurs and all kinds of political maneuvering behind the scenes.  In short, the Establishment had lost a major battle and were on the outs, but that didn't stop them.  The lay in wait for a hole in the Jokowi/Ahok armor, which came in the form of a highly questionable comment back in September.

Ahok was recently defeated for re-election by a man named Anies, who is supported by Prabowo and the Establishment.  Many consider the election to have been rigged, but in the interest of stability, no one stood up to challenge the vote, least of all Ahok, who was under trial at the time for blasphemy.

The trial, too, is suspected of being rigged.  Even some of the people involved in the trial have said the judges need to be investigated for accepting bribes, since the prosecution asked for two years' probation, but in a highly irregular move, the court (five judges) threw the book at Ahok.

At any rate, this leaves President Jokowi completely isolated without any powerful allies.  He is under relentless attack by Prabowo and the Establishment, and rumors have gone around that Jokowi has been directly threatened since the Ahok result.  Jokowi stands for re-election in 2019, if he makes it that long.

In what could hardly be considered a coincidence, Agung - the son of the former president, Yudhoyno - has announced his intent to run for president, and he is openly allied with Prabowo and possibly with Anies.

In other words, the whole sordid affair has all the hallmarks of a subtle but distinct coup.  The reforms and constant attacks on corruption in government have taken a toll on the Establishment, which is widely known to use the State Treasury for political activities.

Knowing this, Ahok is reported to have placed a triple password on city accounts, with one of them being in the hands of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), meaning that even if the Establishment regains power, they may have a difficult time dipping into public funds.

It should also be noted that Djarot, the new acting governor of Jakarta, is openly antagonistic to Jokowi.

Whatever the truth is, the appearances are suspicious to a lot of folks in these parts.  Apparently, investors feel the same way, as the Jakarta Composite Index dropped precipitously after the verdict, and is continuing the down trend as I write.  A bill in Parliament banning alcohol across the country would further undermine the economy by killing tourism, and the general uncertainty is surely causing a lot of foreign investors to think twice about committing funds in the country.

Much remains to be seen, but among expats there is considerable discussion of bailing out and looking for more stable digs elsewhere - like Vietnam and Singapore.  The coming days, weeks and months will tell a tale, and many folks are sitting on their wallets expecting another 1965 or 1998 blow up.

Indonesia is the largest and richest economy in Southeast Asia, and what happens here will ripple throughout the region, which has enjoyed significant stability over the past 20 years.

More to come...

Both Sides Against The Middle

The insanity continues apace.

Here in Jakarta, it has taken an especially hard twist.  In the recent governor election, incumbent Ahok lost to challenger Anies.    What makes it a highlight of global insanity is that the winner ran on a religious platform, saying that Ahok ( a Christian of Chinese descent) was unfit to govern because the Koran says that Muslims cannot be subordinate to non-Muslims.  He, of course, completely misinterprets the lines in question while at the same time accusing Ahok of blasphemy for a statement that has been categorically shown to be false.  Even the Minister of Religious Affairs said that Ahok's comments were mistranscribed - probably on purpose - to discredit the reformist governor.

Where it gets really fun is that Ahok came into office as Vice Governor to the current president, Jokowi.  When Jokowi won the presidency, Ahok ascended to Governor and subsequently won re-election.  Ahok has been roundly praised for cleaning up Jakarta, clearing out slums, upgrading the mass transit system, and rooting out corruption.  Indeed, though many people grumble about actually having to follow the law now, the city has improved quite a bit in the past five years.

Anies, on the other hand, is allied with Prabowo, a man widely seen as corrupt and desperate to take the presidency for himself (he lost to Jokowi in a hotly contested election two years ago).  In the time honored tradition, the ruling political parties raid the State treasury for funds to drive political campaigns, only Ahok has put a triple lock on the Treasury door, with one of the keys being held by the KPK, or Corruption Eradication Commission.  This means all expenditures must be approved by the use of three separate passwords, whith the governor holding only one.

Anies ran on a religious platform, but many people view him as a return to the bad old days of rampant corruption in the Regional government.  Despite Anies wearing his religion on his sleeve, photos made the rounds of social media of drunken parties following his victory - a scandal.  Anies also used a State helicopter to tour his domain, something that Ahok and Jokowi have both eschewed during their tenure, preferring to endure the same traffic issues everyone else does.

Ahok has gone one further now.  During the campaign, Anies adopted a "me too" echo chamber, saying that he would do anything Ahok promised to clean up the city.  This included shutting own one of the most notorious night spots in the city.

To understand the subtleties of this particular challenge, one must understand that the military is widely viewed as having an iron-fist grip on the country's drug trade, and Prabowo (major supporter of Anies) is a former general in the army.  Thus, the gauntlet that has been thrown is a challenge to Anies' loyalty and honesty in a very interesting and low-key manner.

In other developments, food stalls have been returning to areas previously cleared out by Ahok, who thought sidewalks should be uncluttered for pedestrian comfort and safety - a novel idea in Indonesia, where food vendors take advantage of public spaces for rent-free operations.  Also, public employees, who have been forced to punch a clock and actually perform their duties under Ahok, are starting to show up late or not at all for work.

Naturally, a great number of people, who have enjoyed the modernization and efficiency introduced under Ahok, are just a bit worried about what's to come.

There is no doubt now that Prabowo and his Gerindra party will launch another major offensive during the 2020 presidential campaign.  The governor of Jakarta is generally acknowledged as a major stepping stone to national leadership

In effect, this all appears to be a strong political assault on Indonesia's populist revolt, which began in 2010, and a return to the oligarchical rule of yesteryear.

Though this counter-revolt is dressed in all the finery of religious zealotry, it is actually the front of a major shift in Indonesia's demographic composition.  The country's middle class explosion of the past 20 years has allowed an entire generation of Indonesians to be educated overseas.  Combined with the internet and social media, they have become increasingly enamored of truly open and democratic societies elsewhere.

This new generation is much more lenient on drugs (especially marijuana), less controlled by religion, and are far more affluent than even their parents could have imagined.

In other words, it is a mirror of the 1960s, and even more so of the Millennials among their Western counterparts.  In a country where Islam has dominated the social and political landscape for centuries, this is a direct and existential threat to the Powers That Be.  The old control buttons and levers aren't working and they are trying to clamp down to retain their privileged positions.

The problem is, Indonesians are growing accustomed to having disposable income and being able to travel abroad and shop for prestigious brands and drive their own cars, as only the richest folks could do just a short time ago.

Jokowi and Ahok are the crest of a huge wave of change coming to Indonesia, and Anies and Prabowo are the breakwaters trying desperately to slow the tide.  It is the classic case of the rock and the hard spot, with a large, sparkly diamond of middle class affluence resting tenuously in between.

Though it hasn't risen to the level of prominence that the Trump and Le Pen candidacies have, Indonesia's power struggle is nonetheless significant, as it is the premier economy of Southeast Asia.  It is significantly tied to other economies, like Sourth Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines, all of which are on center stage in the massive tug-of-war between the East and West.  The West would obviously feel more secure with an Indonesia that is socially backward and mired in internal corruption.

If Indonesia were to become a major player in regional politics, as it easily could with its vast natural wealth, it would likely align more tightly with China - a prime trading partner - than with Western interests.

Enter Mike Pence, the US Vice President, who recently visited Indonesia.  Coincident with his visit (ahem), Freeport-Macmoran secured an export license that has been in bureaucratic limbo for years pending the outcome of various major lawsuits.  Freeport operates some of the largest gold mines in Indonesia and it isn't hard to imagine the Veep promising to buy up the exports to keep them out of Chinese hands, not to mention the silver and other strategic raw materials that are a bonus of gold mining.

No matter how you slice the pie, things are getting rather interesting here in the archipelago, not just because of the imminent threat to and by North Korea, but also because of the ideological clash that is shaping up in these parts.  Witness Duterte's rather blatant threats against Islamic terrorists in recent days.

For those tracking the political tides of the world, Indonesia bears a close watch, as the incoming Anies administration in Jakarta will be a bellwether of currents in the entire region.  The major concern to Western interests is keeping a strong relgious influence over this government and preventing Indonesia from joining the Shang Hai Accord countries (BRICS).  Indonesia's wealth would greatly benefit the BRICS, and Indonesia itself would benefit from cheaper loans, better trade deals and infrastructure support from China and Russia.

That giant sucking sound is a helluva lot of people holding their breath.

INTERVIEW: Peter Levenda 2 on Radio Far Side

Peter Levenda once again joins us on Radio Far Side.  This time, we use Rudyard Kipling's The Man Who Would Be King as the jumping off point for a discussion of Western culture, economic hegemony, xenophobia, travel, education, and a number of other topics.  The three main questions in focus are: Does Western culture have an innate superiority complex?  If so, is it in fact superior?  And either way, does it contain the seed of its own demise?

This is a fascinating hour with one of the best thinkers and researchers around.  Peter's background and education make him highly qualified to observe and comment on the topic at hand.  Settle back and prepare to think as we explore the last 500 years of Western history vis-a-vis the Eastern hemisphere.

Peter Levenda has spent the past 25 years researching and publishing his books, visiting more than 40 countries and gaining access to temples, prisons, military installations, and government documents. He is president of the international division of a telecommunications company and the author of ten books, including Unholy Alliance: A History of Nazi involvement with the Occult, a trilogy of books titled Sinister Forces: A Grimoire of American Political Witchcraft, also Tantric Temples: Eros and Magic in Java, and his latest book Ratline: Soviet Spies, Nazi Priests and the Disappearance of Adolf Hitler. He lives in Miami, Florida, and he joins us, as luck would have it, from Jogjakarta, Indonesia.

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Peter Levenda website
Tantric Temples website
Ratline website
Previous appearance on Radio Far Side
The Man Who Would Be King e-book
The Man Who Would Be King film

Those who live in or have an interest in Indonesia will especially find this interview interesting.  As a reminder, the Indonesian Tax Ministry is dropping the import tax on non-fiction in the near future, so Peter's books will become significantly cheaper here.  Keep an eye out for the change.

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A note on TMWWBK movie: the story by Rudyard Kipling, directed by John Huston, and starring Sean Connery, Michael Caine and Christopher Plummer.  This is one of the best movies ever made!  As good as anything John Huston directed, including African Queen.  Don't miss it!