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Showing posts with label historical perspective. Show all posts
Showing posts with label historical perspective. Show all posts

21.4.11

The Invisible Hand

Just in case you question the fact that Texans are probably some of the smartest folks around, here's proof.  The University of Texas Investment Fund is taking physical delivery of its gold holdings.  As for proof that Americans are all THAT dumb, Jerome Corsi's book supposedly proving that Obama ain't a legal president (as if you needed proof) has spun up to #2 on Amazon's best-seller list in one day -- pre-release.

There is hope, if not change.

Of course, Obama did keep his promise about "change," since that's about all folks have left in their pockets right now.  And there's plenty of 'hope' that they can find some more 'change' in the sofa cushions.

Back 13 years ago, or so, I started telling friends and family to watch out...the End of the World was coming.  At the time, the dollar index was around 111, gold was $280, silver was $5, gasoline was $1.50, the Dow was 14,000, and I was telling people to beware of Bush and Obama.  They said I was the craziest damn sunnuvabitch that ever came down the pike.

Now, the dollar index is 74, gold is $1,500, silver is $45, gasoline is $5, the Dow is below 13,000 (nominally) and not many people would disagree about Bush and Obama.  And I'm still the craziest damn sunnuvabitch because I moved to the opposite side of the world to watch the fun.

A few people are starting to ask me to help them get out, though.  Guess I'm just ahead of my time, is all.  It really does pay to read a little history once in a while.  You can learn a lot from seeing how all the previous bone-headed social experiments turned out.

Meantime, the world is going completely bonkers.  There's so much stuff happening at the micro-level that it's hard to keep up with it all.  Better to stay up at the meta-level where one can perceive trends in the Big Picture.

Trends are things like the news of Stuxnet breaking late last year, targeting Iran's nuke plants, and all the problems occurring with nuke plants worldwide right now, not just in Japan, but in Germany, the US, the EU, and Russia.  They didn't all get hit by earthquakes and tsunamis.  You think there's a connection?  Maybe Stuxnet got out of control?  LIHOP/MIHOP kind of questions.

Trends like mass die-offs occurring all over the place, that all began with the BP fiasco and GoM murder.  Now BP has revealed that it used artificial microbes on the spill.  Now, one year later, critters are dropping out of the skies and washing up on beaches, in or around coastal areas.  And do you think there's a connection between bird, bee, fish, and animal die-offs, and things like genetically-modified plants, magnetic anomalies and increased Earth rumblings?

I keep going back to pointillist painters like Georges Surat.  When you are up close to the paintings, they are just little blobs of color, but when you step back far enough, they create rich images.  Everything in life is a matter of perspective.  If you stand back far enough from history, you can perceive long-term trends and conditions.  You can also perceive the Invisible Hand that has guided events to this particular intersection.

There's no magic to seeing the future.  Once one understands how things work, and can see the omens and portends, it becomes rather easy.  On the micro-level, you can't always foresee discrete events, but on the macro-level, you can definitely follow the stream of events.  But, there is one curious part to current events.

It seems that the Invisible Hand is losing its grip.  Yes, this Hand definitely benefits from increasing chaos and entropy, but only when it contrives and controls them.  What the Hand seems to have missed is that no matter how big your perspective is, there is always a larger one.  You can stand back quite a ways, but someone else can stand back quite a ways further.

An excellent parable for times like these is "Jurassic Park," the book not the movie.  In the book, the megalomaniacal owner of the island thinks he can control and manipulate Life.  Because he has the power to bring ancient life-forms back from the grave, and even customize the genome to suit his needs, he thinks that he is, in effect, God.  What he discovers is that there is always a bigger perspective.

I get the distinct impression that Life is spiraling out of the grip of the Invisible Hand.  In its hubris and megalomania, it has forgotten that in the hierarchy of the Universe, there is always someone higher up the shit pile from you.

If anything, that is what science should have taught us.  We invent bigger telescopes and discover that what we thought was the end of the Universe was really just the beginning.  Then we invent bigger microscopes and discover that what we thought was the smallest possible thing was really made of smaller things.  Over and over, we see this progression, and over and over we see scientists pontificating as if they now know and understand everything.

Those who forget their past are doomed to repeat it.  Another way to look at it, is if you don't mark your trail, you will end up walking in circles.

It would seem that the Invisible Hand has met the Unintended Consequence.  It is discovering that all the machinations and contingencies don't conceive of every possible outcome.  No one and nothing can do that.  Thus, the Powers That Be are becoming the Powers That Were.  In the process, Mankind must suffer, because we have never been down the alternative roads.  At least not as a species, though there are some notable experiments in alternatives.

Throughout our history, there have always been kings, whether overt or covert.  The time has come to try something new.  Humans have tried every conceivable variation on the theme, and it always ends the same: Disaster.  Will we ever achieve Utopia?  Possibly, if we survive the experiments.  One thing is sure, though, we will not survive the current paradigm much longer, at the rate we are going.  We have overrun the Petri dish.

The problem has always been that when the zoo-keeper dies, so do most of the zoo's inhabitants.  But a few survive and revert to their natural state.  They adjust and adapt until they are comfortable in the new state of things.  Then they become confident and begin manipulating the new state until they grow in power and pride. Ultimately, that new paradigm dies, as well.

It is the nature of Nature.  There is no escaping All That Is.

In the meantime, it is interesting to watch, from a distance.  It is a challenge to maintain perspective when events almost demand that we drop down to the minute level to survive.  It is great theater from a dispassionate point of view.  I am gripping the arms of the chair as I wait for the next scene.  The Director is a genius!  He has telegraphed just enough that we can anticipate the plot, but not the action.  Just like Spielberg's 'mine-car scene' in the Indiana Jones series.  He found that the scene was much scarier when the camera turned and let us foresee what was coming, because it was the anticipation, not the actual events, that got our hearts racing.

And so we grab our popcorn and peanuts and a Big Gulp of sugar-water, and sit back for the ride.  Where this train is going, no one knows at this point.  But, the camera keeps panning around to let us foresee just enough that the hairs on our necks stand up.

One thing we know for certain.  At the closing credits, all the main characters will be gone.  Should be interesting to see how we get there.

24.2.11

Bugs Baradei And Qadaffy Duck Show

Today, we take off the conspiracy glasses, through which we normally see the back-room deals behind the headlines, and put on our history glasses that allow us to see the threads that bind current events to historical trends.

For history buffs, this is one of those fun exercises that put the screaming headline news into the perspective of centuries of history. When we're done, we are better able to see the context of current events and, consequently, the players behind the scenes who are manipulating our reality.

One very fine historian, whom I highly recommend, is Daniel J. Boorstin, who sadly died a few years back. He was a master at showing the common thread of events that lead to current events.

At any rate, let's see if we can't pick up a thread or two in the tapestry of time that will put some perspective on Middle East events.

Over here, we find James I of England, who was cornered by the blue bloods of the time into signing the Magna Charta in AD 1215. This was the first major challenge to the Divine Right of Kings in history. It basically pulled the main support column out from under the absolute sovereignty of monarchs and started a trend towards democratization and constitutional governments.

Next, we pick up the thread of Martin Luther and his commonly-called Ninety-Five Theses. This was a direct challenge to the Roman Cathloic Chruch's hegimony in Europe, and was predicated on the radical new technology of moveable type, used famously by Guternberg to disseminate the Bible in the common tongue to thousands of people.

Like printing the US Constitution, people were able to look in the Bible for themselves and see that all the supposed power of the Holy See was not mentioned anywhere by the Gospels. This was a major blow to monarchical power.

This wave of Rome bashing emboldened Henry VIII to go head-to-head with the Roman church and ultimately declare the Church of England a separate authority, thus throwing gasoline on the fire of the Protestant Revolution (a term composed of the words "protest" and "revolt"...sound familiar yet?)

Luther's challenge was to the concept of 'pleniary' and 'extraordinary' indulgences, which the Roman church conceived whole-cloth out of its supposed supreme power over the Earth. The idea was that one could buy one's way out of 'purgatory' (another made-up concept) by buying or performing indulgences, which vastly enriched the Roman church.

Luther had the gall to point out that there was absolutely no Gospel foundation for either indulgences or purgatory. The people, naturally, were a bit miffed that they had been so deeply misled. Ultimately, this caused the collapse of the Holy Roman Empire, which led to World War I.

In World War I, we have this rogue character names T. E. Lawrence, who you may know as Lawrence of Arabia. Though Lawrence was acting of his own volition, the Powers That Be found him to be a useful stooge, as he was leading the disparate Arab tribes to unification under King Faisal, who in turn was friendly to Western powers.

The Western powers, rememvering Hanibal and the Ottoman Empire, had sought for centuries to control the Middle East, which was a key trade route and a hot-bed of growing Muslim power. Being both an economic and religious threat to Western interests, the Middle East was key to diffusing any threats before they reached the outskirts of Europe.

Meantime, over in the Americas, a radical group of thinkers and tinkers had successfully rebelled against the English throne and established a reworking of the ancient concept of 'republic,' borrowing from Roman and Greek political thought.

The success of the American Revolution led to the French getting uppity, followed by the Australians, and finally to Ghandi in India. These revolts were devastating to the British Empire, which today is reeling from the blows, as its economy collapses under the weight of empire without resources.

Since the British Empire, through its naval dominion and lack of domestic resources, had cobbled together nations out of vastly differring cultures, it was vital that the empire be able to project force at a distance in order to maintain these artificial 'nations.' Examples include Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, and others. Without the ability to rape and pillage other continents, England was just a small, insignificant island off the west coast of Europe.

As the British Empire unwinds, after 300 years, so do the many manipulations it has perpetrated on the political world. Just as the Austrio-Hungarian Empire splintered into a hundred different countries (leading to the Serbia-Kosovo war a while back), and the Soviet Empire blew apart into dozens of 'Stans,' so too, the British Empire's death is causing major upheaval in the world.

As we continue pulling the threads, we see two themes coming apart: one is the absolute power of monarchs and the other is artificial countries cobbled together out of historical enemies for economic and political expediency.

The thread of monarchy, begun in 1215, with James I, continues to this moment as Moroccan and Saudi Arabian kings desparately cling to their thrones. The secular version of kings, commonly called dictators, are similarly being overthrown, as the common people begin to perceive 'the man behind the curtain.'

They are also doing a head-count and finding that, gee, there are a billion folks over here, and twenty over there.  Why do they get all the goodies?

One after another, they will continue to fall, just as the British colonies did before them. It is the inevitable outcome of history.

We have seen these same impulses in Asia, as the Chinese dynasties collapsed and the Japanese emporer became mortal again.  Even the Catholic Church is further unwinding as the corruption and decay behind two millenia of absolute rule are displayed for all to see.

The artificial 'nations' forced, like opposing poles of magnets, to come together, are now flying apart. British constructs, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, Libya, and many others, are again splintering into their historic tribal affiliations.

Similarly, the Holy Roman Empire, reborn as the Austrio-Hungarian, then the Third Reich, and now the European Union, is blowing itself apart. These artifical constructs, based not on cultural unity, but on political expedience, are all crumbling, as the brick and mortar of empire decays.

There has been a major trend over centuries to democratize power and wealth. The masses, tired of the genetic crap-shoot that is monarchy, and weary of highly centralized power in the hands of moguls and bankers, the effects of which are the same, have taken to the streets to wrest power out of the hands of the few and into the hands of the individual.

As we pull all of these threads together, we can start to get a glimpse of the tapestry of history that is unfolding in today's headlines. Though this survey is hardly comprehensive, nor is it exhaustive, it does allow us to see some of the Big Picture, that looks so complicated at the level of pixels, but which make a good bit of sense when we draw back a little.

It's like looking at a Georges Seuurat painting. Up close, we perceive only discreet dots of color, but standing back, we can see hundreds of people engaged in various activities on a Sunday afternoon in the park.

Perhaps a bit of perspective removes some of the fear of current events, though it certainly does not lessen the profound loss of life, nor the major upheaval to the world order. It is the nature of humans to do everything they can to preserve the status quo, while at the same time wishing to change things for the better. This dichotomy within our souls is perhaps the grain of conflict in our outter reality. The impulse for change or not is further motivated by good or evil intent. We must be wary of the motives of those pulling the strings of history behind the wall of illusion we call 'reality.'

Just as Seurat's points of color blend at a distance to create the illusion of an image, or even the way pixels combine on your screen to give the illusion of text, which is further an illusion of abstract thought, we must maintain a broad enough perspective on history so that we are not slaves to it.

Slavery comes in many guises, both from outside and in. The shackles we place on ourselves are no less real than those put on us by others. The key to our freedom is having the proper perspective on things.

Even Death itself fears Knowledge.