If A Butterfly In Washington

We have to start off with apologies for vanishing for a couple of days.  Between a sudden bit of bad news and a burst of activity, this week became reallly busy really fast.

I don't know if it is the Trump Effect or just first-of-the-year budgets, but work has picked up dramatically in the opening weeks of 2017.  I've booked more hours in two weeks than I did for all of the fourth quarter of 2016, and I've been living out of the back of an Uber.  I leave the house at just before 6a, and don't get home again until 8:30p.

Not that I'm complaining.  Last year was a complete wash out.  As I look back on it, I've come the suspect that the world was seemingly resigned to a Clinton administration and was prepared for the worst economically.  However, the Trump election appears to have kicked everyone in the butt, either in anticipation of economic renewal, or out of sheer panic that old markets are drying up.

In my lifetime of just over half a century, I do not recall such a major shift in social, political and economic winds.  I might compare it to the 1980s, right after Reagan was elected and there was a bump in excitement after the Democratic Carter administration, that also nearly ran the world into economic ruin.

One thing I will say about Democrats is that they are masters at killing business.  But I guess that's to be expected from a party that vehemently defended slavery, gave the world a central banking system, introduced the personal income tax, and expanded two regional European conflicts into global catastrophes.  Someone really should put those bastards out of our misery.

If you're Republican, don't feel too smug.  Your party is only a hair's breadth better because occasionally you manage to get a candidate that lowers taxes and deregulates everything, which kicks entrepreneurs like myself into gear.  I think it's more by accident than design, since nothing having to do with government is for the betterment of us real people.

To see just how demented and slimy the Republicans can be, just look at John McCain.

Whatever Trump is achieving, even in these past few weeks before officially taking office, is re-introducing a peculiarly American form of mercantilistic capitalism that has got the Chinese literally shitting their britches.  Folks in the States may be a bit distracted to see clearly see what's going on, but here in Asia it is readily apparent.

The US swung suddenly and violently from literally kowtowing to Chinese dominance, to the polar opposite of not taking any guff off the kids in Beijing.  Even something as seemingly benign as Trump taking a phone call from the president of Taiwan has set off a fire-storm of panic in the gilded halls of the Forbidden City.  In short, the Socialists are profoundly spooked at the re-emergence of Fascism.

Lest the reader be confused at this point, one would do well to poke back into our archives, where we talk extensively about the basic philosophical similarities between Socialism and Fascism, with the differences being little more than who gets to sit closest to the salt at the Bildergerg dinners.  The bit that looks like Capitalism is where government deregulates the playing field so the little guy has much more equal footing with the massive global corporate interests.

In any case, the Chinese are quickly asserting themselves to get as much damage control in place as they can before the Trump Era begins.  They have been sailing their warships all over the South China Sea in a geopolitical form of flexing on the beach.  They have overtly threatened the US if anyone so much as breathes in the general direction of the One-China Policy.  They have signaled their "desire" to participate in any infrastructure rebuilding in the States.  They have also been calling Putin daily to invite him for some chow at the palace, desperately afraid that Russia will start moving in a Westerly direction, since they clearly know that Russia is only their buddy because the US has been such a bunch of horse's patoots for the past two decades.

At any rate, gotta run.  I'ts 4:30a and time to shower up and order Uber.  I will get back on schedule next week, when I have the weekend to get my posts prepared.  In the meantime, be sure and follow our Twitter feed @RadioFarSide for dispatches on important headlines affecting the Sino-American situation and thanks for your kind patience.

And to my beloved sister, who passes away suddenly in her sleep, I am happy that your pain is ended and that your passing was without unnecessary drama, but your absence is sorely felt and your laughter will be profoundly missed.  Slan agus beannach mo dheirfiúr.

The Global Con Game

Don't know if you've noticed, since not many folks are talking about it, but all of the major countries either having problems, or are on the US shit list are members of the BRICSA bloc of nations.

In case you are a bit behind, the BRICSA is a somewhat loose association between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICSA).  Over the years, they have built up amenable trade and cultural ties, and have tried to synchronize policies in such a way as to benefit and promote the member countries.

The latest BRICSA efforts have centered around creating a new financial clearing system to compete with the ubiquitous SWIFT system, and the essentially Western lap-dog JSCC system in Japan.

Why is this important?  Well, SWIFT handles nearly all the major inter-nation settlements for securities, bank transfers, credit card purchases, and so forth.  Basically, SWIFT is the world's financial system.  Without it, most major economies would simply shut down, because backing the SWIFT system are, for the most part, seven major players who insure the transactions.  For instance, if the US needs to transfer a few billion bux to China on account, one of the players will insure the transaction at value for the few seconds it takes between hitting "enter" and the blips showing up at the other end.

The SWIFT system is enabled by a fleet of secure satellite transponders and the most intimidating (not really the largest and no one is sure if the strongest) military forces on Earth.  It is this system that is the fundamental underpinning of US hegemony since the last World War, and the primary reason that the US dollar is the world's reserve currency.

Along come these BRICSA upstarts who understand the power and influence exerted by the SWIFT system, and they decide they are going to take a stab at making a parallel system that is not beholden to Western power centers, specifically the seven groups who underwrite the transactions.

Well, the Western banksters ain't having none of that.

Since the moment Russia and China announced their intentions to create this new financial system (about five years ago), Russia has been on the NATO target list, China's South China Sea activities have gained increasing attention at the Pentagon, India is suddenly not as chummy as it used to be, and Brazil...well, we'll get to that in a minute.  As for South Africa, hell no one's paid any attention to them since the end of Apartheid.

Most of the world's big geo-political problems can be traced back to this one thing: replacing SWIFT.  If you have any doubts about who runs the Western powers, just look at the Western militaries and their behaviors since the SWIFT system came under close scrutiny.

NATO has suddenly gotten all up in Russia's face.  US covert operations stirred up the Ukraine.  The US navy and air assets have been buzzing around the South China Sea like disturbed hornets and sea lice.  India is suddenly not the hot IT paradise it once was.  And Brazil...well...

Brazil was given the Olympics a few years back as reward for being such good boys and girls and playing nice in the US sandbox.  But, when Brazil started getting uppity and electing people like Dilma Rouseffe, who dared to think her country could be a little more independent, POOF!  Along comes the Zika virus, which first made headlines in Brazil, and where most of the severe cases (so we are told) are at the moment.  Next thing you know, Rouseffe is impeached, folks start pulling out of the Olympics and Brazil is close to being stuck with a huge bill if the games are cancelled due to...um, Zika, yeah Zika.

This whole mess is quite obvious from a certain point of view. Of course the media won't connect the dots because the wizard doesn't want you peeking behind the curtain.

Brazil is receiving special attention because, 1) it is over a barrel with the Olympics, and 2) it is in the US backyard, where other powers are not allowed to play.  You see, the US has this thing about keeping South America and Europe tied tightly to its apron strings.  That's why Venezuela was dealt with so harshly, and Obama made a hurried trip to Argentina for the first time in his administration (the Chinese are making big investments there), and why a bankster (there is no former) is in the lead for president of Peru.

Of course, the BRICSA are fighting back.  All this immigration mess?  Yup, you guessed it.  Just turn the US' and EU's lax immigration laws and policies back on them.  Quiet.  Subtle.

As for the US, we have Killary, whom everyone knows is in the bankster pocket, but Trump?  Well, guess what?  All those billions he brags about?  Gosh, they could all vanish with a keystroke, and he still has to use the SWIFT system to move his bux around, no matter how independent he thinks he is.

In the end, nearly every single problem in the world for the past five years can be traced back to competing financial systems.  The Western oligarchs have gotten used to controlling to world's money, and they won't give up easily.  Think Al Capone, but on a far grander scale.

We are witnessing turf wars, plain and simple, though played out on a global scale, with a game of Risk thrown in for good measure.  Armies move around and deploy, satellite ground stations get built over here, man-made islands appear over there, national economies rise and fall based on whose turf they want to play in.

On the one hand, it's a ridiculous mobster game, but on the other, there are a lot of innocent folks who will get caught in the St. Valentine's Day Massacre.

Remember the shakedown of 2008-9?  Now, imagine this: a couple of well-heeled guys walk into your shop and say, "Pay us some protection money, 'cause I wouldn't want to see your business fall apart or nuttin'."  Same thing.  Gee, Congress, don't wanna pay up?  Ooh, did you feel the economic earthquake just now?  Better hurry or we won't be able to protect you much longer.

It's all one big alphabet soup: SWIFT, JSCC, US, EU, TPP, TTIP, BRICSA...

But it all boils down to one thing: it's an international game of gangsters and mafia, and we are all pawns.  They have the power to destroy nations who don't play along - on either side.  The Big Question is, who will win?  The next question is: how many of us will get crushed in the stampede?

Machiavelli Versus Sun Tzu

In the 50-year history of the Star Trek franchise, one of the most memorable and poignant lines, packed with metaphor and subtext, was Spock's observation that 'only Nixon could go to China' (Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country if you're keeping track).

Indeed, 41 years ago, when Nixon went to China to 'open' the nation to global economic participation, he likely had no idea the can of worms into which he was prying.  To the Western mind, it was a vast supply of cheap labor and a billion potential consumers.

China has always been inscrutable and mysterious to Westerners, not unlike a tiger.  The West was ill-prepared for wrestling tigers, especially the US, which was a mere babe in arms when it came to global hegemony.  The Chinese had conquered the world many times before Nixon boarded Air Force One.  His nation had only shown up yesterday in Chinese history books.

In the 40 short years since Nixon's visit, China has gone from a closed, intensely self-absorbed nation to an economic dynamo sitting squarely atop the globe and directly threatening the century-long plans of the 'exceptional' Americans for world domination.

America's weakness has always been its hubris.  From the days of religious refugees spilling out of Europe to seek peace in North America, there has been an underlying current of 'exceptionalism' in American culture.  When America looked in the mirror, it saw a Shining City Upon The Hill, a civilizing force among nations, a power to reshape the world in its own image.  Balancing precariously on this fragile pedestal, the US has applied its resources and ingenuity to casting a New World Order, with itself as Greek god enthroned on Olympus.  More literally, a new Rome stretching forth its hand to own all it touches.

However, as anyone who has played King of the Hill knows, having the high ground is not enough when you occupy the most desirable position.  Being a leader is a fun place to be, with the perks of power and dominance, but there is always someone waiting in the wings to topple you from your throne, and China has three millennia of experience at doing just that.

China, for better or worse, has sat ensconced on the Eastern hemisphere for centuries.  It has been the center of power, learning and economics on this half of the globe since long before the US ever thought to lead the world.  In fact, it is highly likely that Admiral Zheng He was traipsing around present-day California before Christopher Columbus was even born.

Suffice it to say that China has watched empires rise and fall.  Its own ambitions have touched every continent.  Genghis Khan's Mongol empire, seated in Beijing, knocked at the door of Europe and so scared folks that even today, the expression 'Mongol hordes' still infects the English language.

When it comes to business, the Americans have found themselves outmatched.  Unless you have sat across from Chinese at the negotiating table, you will not understand and fully appreciate the word "ruthless".  When it comes to business, the Chinese will slit your throat while bowing politely and offering soft words of praise on your business acumen.  They are able to scale this technique from one-on-one to nation-on-nation.  Where the US bombs its way into hearts and minds, the Chinese buy and trade, and one can infer which method engenders more loyalty.

When Nixon entered China, he saw himself as liberator.  He was going to undermine the Communist system by showing the Chinese the glory of democracy and capitalism.  Forty years later, the US dangles from a rope and China is tying the other end to the tree.  Welcome to Chinese business dealings.  One can be reasonably sure that when Nixon sat down with Deng Xiaoping, he likely wasn't thinking that the culture behind Deng had invented gunpowder, paper money, state lotteries, and even spaghetti and meatballs - all the tools of US hegemony were, in fact, made in China.  'Opening' China to democracy and capitalism was actually throwing Br'er Rabbit into the briar patch.

One of the US's main strengths, being the new kid on the global block, is also its primary Achilles Heel.  Being new to the list of empires gave the US a certain amount of deference and laissez faire on the part of the world, since it had no operating history, no track record, and folks were willing to offer the benefit of the doubt.  However, this advantage was turned to the dark side and was taken over by greed and lust for power.  Blinded by pride, Nixon marched into China to unwittingly unleash the tiger that would turn to maul the supposed trainer.

Empires are like Super Bowl champions, every year there's a new one, and history is no different.  America got its ring, the trip to Disneyland and enjoyed some endorsement contracts, but this season has seen many injuries and the loss of some key players, so another team has risen to dominate the game.

The US team is a new franchise and has only held championship status once in its history.  The new champion China has been around for a while and has won many Super Bowls before.  Within the culture of the franchise, they recognize that you only sit at the top for a short time before being toppled by the next champion.  While you're at the top, you make a little money, store up some wealth, get a few things done, and then wait for the inevitable losing season.

The US has squandered its position because it has no history.  It forgot its Reformation roots of humility and work, and instead of storing wealth for the eventual fall, it went all-in, like a cocky poker player in a Vegas tournament.  When the deal went south, it could do little else but watch as the pile of chips moved to the wrong side of the table.

The mentalities and strategies of the two sides are vastly different.  The US makes blind bounding leaps throwing caution to the wind and over-extending itself in the quest for glory.  The Chinese advance in increments.  They extend a little, secure and shore up, then extend a little more.  The Americans are brash nouveau riche - spoiled and profligate - while the Chinese are ancient dynasties of wealth and privilege.  The former throws money and caution to the wind, while the latter quietly amasses wealth and fortifies position and influence, yielding when the occasion requires it.

The two sides are like yin and yang.  They are the perfect compliment to each other.  They can not defeat each other, nor can they dominate each other.  They will always return to equilibrium because they can not exist without each other.  In the Chinese view, they are happy to have the flamboyant Americans to hide behind, like a courtier to Louis XIV.  Let the gaudy sun king take all the glory...and the blame.  Meantime, sit quietly behind the throne directing the action and save every scrap that falls from the royal table.  It is the tortoise and the hare writ large.

Indeed, the Chinese and Western banksters are equals, and on the stage of history, it is not the rise and fall of the American empire that is the real drama of our times.  Kings come and go.  Rather, it is the clash of these two hidden powers - the Eastern and Western dynasties - that will be the true action of the play.  Even now, the Eastern bloc is establishing its own system of alliances and finance to compete head-to-head with the mere apprentices in the West.  To add insult to injury, the Eastern dynasties are using the tools of the West against them, like Xiao Lin adepts turning force against itself.  The hapless West keeps throwing empty punches and spends a lot of time on its back staring up at the sky, not quite sure how it got in that position.

For those with eyes to see, it is an epic death match between two fundamentally equal sides - in one corner sits Niccolo Bernardo Machiavelli and in the other Sun Tzu.  Those of us with front row seats will get spattered with blood and body parts, like an audience at a macabre Gallagher concert.  The rock has met the hard spot, the tiger and the bull, and we the world are caught between.  It is not the first time, and won't be the last, but it is the latest event of the season.

It's Rotschildt versus Li in the classic rivalry that has entertained the world for centuries.  Both sides are master manipulators, and both know that empire is just a show to distract from their real plays.  They are adept at avoiding the spotlight.  One side uses the blunt weapons of Machiavelli: the ax, the hammer and the sword.  The other uses the refined weapons of Sun Tzu: deception, stealth and redirection.

Nothing much to do now, but buy some snacks and settle in for a real show.  In the game of empire, these are Princes skilled in the Art of War.

Immigration Reform? Hahahahaha!

The ongoing debate over immigration in the States and Europe is cause for some introspection on being an expat now well-past five years.

In my life, I have been an expat for roughly a decade, with the longest stretch being the current Indonesian adventure.  One assumes that the term 'expat' refers primarily to folks who go about it in a legal manner, with all the appropriate stamps and permits to carry on the daily routine of life, since one rarely hears the term applied to those who do not.

Currently in the US, there is a tremendous amount of hand-wringing over 'immigration reform', which involves granting amnesty to illegals, forgiving back taxes and offering various incentives to help them on their way up the social ladder.  The US immigration system is a farce by any measure and laughable to those of us who endure the rigors of other nations' policies.

Let's take Indonesia as an example of what most of the world considers immigration policy.

Here, a 30-day tourist visa costs $25 on arrival.  You can get a 60-day visa outside the country for around $45, plus any agent fees and such.  The 30-day visa is extendable up to 90 days at $25 per month.  The 60-day visa is extendable up to 180 days with the same $25 per month.

Beyond that, you can obtain a 6-month and one-year visa, called a KITAS, that is concomitant with an IMTA work permit.  You must have the KITAS to get the IMTA, but the former does not guarantee the latter.  For one year, it runs about $2,000, all in.  If you get the one-year visa, then you must get the NPWP, or taxpayer number.

You are liable for tax on all income from whatever source anywhere in the world until the NPWP is cancelled - even if you leave Indonesia.  To cancel the NPWP is a 6-month process with a guaranteed tax audit for all the years you have been in-country.

In all cases, you must either maintain a valid ticket out of the country, or your employer is required to pay your ticket out at the end of the contract.  This is to ensure that if you are deported, you pay your own way.

Furthermore, foreigners can not own any property outright.  You can co-own it with a spouse, but if your spouse dies or divorces you, you have one year to divest the property or face confiscation.  The best you can hope for otherwise is hak bangunan, which gives you full rights to property for up to 30 years, and is renewable one time.

The biggest reform to Indonesian immigration laws in the past two decades was the creation of a 10-year KITAP, or permanent resident visa.  This is only available to expats married to locals and so far does not come with the IMTA - that's extra.  It costs $5,000, and because there are yet no controlling regulations issued for them, it is nothing but a big shaft.  One story I heard was that an expat got one after months of strenuous effort, only to have it cancelled when his employer applied for a work permit.  It was replaced with the standard one-year KITAS.

If you want to become an Indonesian citizen, the you must hold a KITAP for some mysterious amount of time.  Then your application will go through a Kafka-esque process until it reaches the president's desk, where he must sign it and publicly declare you a citizen.

Given this background, when I hear of 'immigration reform' in the US, or Europeans wailing and gnashing their teeth over immigrant workers taking over the place, I laugh.  By comparison, the US immigration system is a joke, and the reform is hardly worth the effort since no one pays the least bit of attention to it in the first place.  I personally know two Indonesians who have lived and worked in a major city for more than 25 years with hardly a bead of sweat to show for their dealings with immigration laws.

The word 'farce' comes to mind.

To call the debate in the US "reform" is a bit disingenuous.  It's more like deciding whether to keep the patient on life-support or pull the plug.

A number of writers have speculated that the true demise of Rome was due to the overwhelming number of former slaves who eventually took over the daily operations of the empire.  Most of the real Romans had long since bugged out or left the drudge work to the under classes.  By the time the Visigoths overran the city, there were few folks left to worry or care.

Most people who think the current immigration 'reform' is compassionate have never lived, much less traveled, outside the US.  They have no clue what real immigration policy is, nor do they have any notion of history to inform their thinking.

The Big BO invited a group of illegal immigrants to the White House, a place where few citizens are allowed in the name of 'security'.  There are currently little or no repercussions for employers or illegals alike when they flaunt what little regulation exists.  If the media really had the intention to debate the story, they would interview US expats in other countries about what it means to be an immigrant.  But that might risk introducing a bit of reality into the discussion.

Immigration reform does not mean giving away the store or spending a bit more time groping people at the airport.  Reform means enforcing the visa expirations, disallowing 'anchor babies' and withholding social benefits paid for by productive taxpayers.

Personally, I think all national borders should be done away with because the whole thing is nothing more than a revenue scam, and has little or nothing to do with national security.  But public discourse on the topic of immigration should at least be honest and complete.  Don't call it immigration reform when what is really on the table is creating a class of specially privileged people based on the fact that they have no history or investment in a country.

In every case where I have lived overseas, I have gone out of my way to learn the languages and customs of my host country.  I have done all I could to assimilate, even when I stand out like a galleon among row boats.

If an immigrant begins his tenure in another country by refusing to follow the common law, what does that say about his long-term intentions?  And to reward that behavior with blanket amnesty and special treatment that offers enhanced status over current citizens is nothing less than insane.

Whether we are discussing the US, UK or EU, the current immigration debate smacks of either a concerted effort to undermine the long-term viability of those nations involved, or a depth of stupidity rarely matched in history.

I opt for the former.