Tales Of Intrigue

Photo courtesy Vice.com

Events here in Jakarta have stirred up quite a bit of interest, with a ton-and-a-half of email and well over 500 readers all trying to get a handle on what happened yesterday.  The questions and hits have come from every continent but Antarctica asking what happened and what next?

Well, let's see if I can boil this down to the marrow.

Jakarta's Governor Ahok, a man of Chinese descent and Christian - only the second in history to hold the office - was found guilty of blasphemy against al-Qur'an and sentenced to two years in jail, to start immediately despite his intention to appeal.  He was taken into custody and sent to Cipinang prison in East Jakarta, but later last night was moved to the custody of TNI - the Indonesian army - for "safety" reasons.

Vice Governor Djarot was advanced to acting governor until the end of the term in October, when the governor-elect, Anies, will be sworn in.

The blasphemy charge was based on a speech Ahok gave back in September to a group of supporters.  The speech was recorded on video, then edited out of context and mistranscribed to mangle the Governor's words and meaning.

The actual verse in question is from the book Al Maidan 51, and is translated into English (only Arabic is considered the true Word of Allah) as:

"O you who have faith!  Do not take the Jews and the Christians as masters; they are master of each other/  Any of you who submit to them is indeed one of them.  Indeed, Allah does not guide the wrongdoing lot.

Setting aside the long historic antagonism between Christians and Jews, this has frequently, especially by hardliners, been interpreted to mean that Muslims may not have any non-Muslim over them, whether it be political, social or religious in nature.

Thus, it has been interpreted to mean that even in a secular republic, such as Indonesia, where the Constitution recognizes five religions on equal footing (Judaism not among them), Muslims may not allow a non-Muslim to be elected to a government office.  Never mind the concept of a public servant being below the common citizen, not above.

In any event, Ahok was reported to have said to the crowd that they shouldn't be "deceived" into thinking that this verse refers to office holders in a republican form of government.  It only means that a Muslim should not serve a master who is non-Muslim, nor should he accept religious instruction from a non-Muslim.

Well, the choice of the word "deceived" set off a shit storm.  Ahok was accused of insulting al-Quran by misinterpreting the words and using scripture for political purposes.  I don't know.  I wasn't there.  All I can say it what was reported in a video that I know is not an actual representation of the moment (it was edited) and a transcript that even the man who did it admitted was not accurate.

At any rate, one of the most honest and hard-working politicians, certainly in my memory, who did an amazing amount of good for the city of Jakarta in the four years he served, is now in jail for two years under highly questionable circumstances.

First of all, the documentation is suspect.  That much has already been stated.  Second is the question of whether a non-Muslim can be said to blaspheme a book that is not sacred to his own religion?  Blasphemy is typically limited to believers.  Third, what are the motivations behind the conviction?

It is this last question that has caused so much consternation.  You see, Ahok was originally elected Vice Governor under the current president Jokowi.  They were a team who came riding into town on a populist/reformist wave in 2012, from the city of Yogyakarta, where they were widely heralded as having cleaned up local government and ridding the city of entrenched corruption.

They were elected governor and vice governor together in Jakarta.  Two years later, Jokowi won the presidency and Ahok took over as governor.  During his tenure, the city buses actually started running on a schedule, the mass transit system was overhauled and an MRT system was inaugurated, city employees were made to show up on time and work full days, and corruption declined precipitously.

When Jokowi ran for president, he was opposed by a man named Prabowo.  Prabowo is widely considered to be part of the Establishment: a former general in the army and one of the deep crony insiders.  One could think of this match-up as similar to Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton.

Prabowo was so sure that he would win that the loss led to court battles and media slurs and all kinds of political maneuvering behind the scenes.  In short, the Establishment had lost a major battle and were on the outs, but that didn't stop them.  The lay in wait for a hole in the Jokowi/Ahok armor, which came in the form of a highly questionable comment back in September.

Ahok was recently defeated for re-election by a man named Anies, who is supported by Prabowo and the Establishment.  Many consider the election to have been rigged, but in the interest of stability, no one stood up to challenge the vote, least of all Ahok, who was under trial at the time for blasphemy.

The trial, too, is suspected of being rigged.  Even some of the people involved in the trial have said the judges need to be investigated for accepting bribes, since the prosecution asked for two years' probation, but in a highly irregular move, the court (five judges) threw the book at Ahok.

At any rate, this leaves President Jokowi completely isolated without any powerful allies.  He is under relentless attack by Prabowo and the Establishment, and rumors have gone around that Jokowi has been directly threatened since the Ahok result.  Jokowi stands for re-election in 2019, if he makes it that long.

In what could hardly be considered a coincidence, Agung - the son of the former president, Yudhoyno - has announced his intent to run for president, and he is openly allied with Prabowo and possibly with Anies.

In other words, the whole sordid affair has all the hallmarks of a subtle but distinct coup.  The reforms and constant attacks on corruption in government have taken a toll on the Establishment, which is widely known to use the State Treasury for political activities.

Knowing this, Ahok is reported to have placed a triple password on city accounts, with one of them being in the hands of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), meaning that even if the Establishment regains power, they may have a difficult time dipping into public funds.

It should also be noted that Djarot, the new acting governor of Jakarta, is openly antagonistic to Jokowi.

Whatever the truth is, the appearances are suspicious to a lot of folks in these parts.  Apparently, investors feel the same way, as the Jakarta Composite Index dropped precipitously after the verdict, and is continuing the down trend as I write.  A bill in Parliament banning alcohol across the country would further undermine the economy by killing tourism, and the general uncertainty is surely causing a lot of foreign investors to think twice about committing funds in the country.

Much remains to be seen, but among expats there is considerable discussion of bailing out and looking for more stable digs elsewhere - like Vietnam and Singapore.  The coming days, weeks and months will tell a tale, and many folks are sitting on their wallets expecting another 1965 or 1998 blow up.

Indonesia is the largest and richest economy in Southeast Asia, and what happens here will ripple throughout the region, which has enjoyed significant stability over the past 20 years.

More to come...

A Taste Of The Far Side

UPDATE: Ahok found guilty, sentenced to 2 years in prison.  Ahok files immediate appeal to Constitutional Court.  Governor-elect Anies trying to take over office 6 months early.

It's an interesting time to live in Indonesia.  The largest Muslim country on Earth by population is undergoing a self-examination, with full knowledge that this nation is composed of vast numbers of wildly different cultures (all indigenous) and the only way to hold it together is to ensure they all are equal.  In other words, just because the majority believes one thing doesn't mean every must, and the minority must be protected.  In other words, a republican form of social order.

Indonesia shares a lot of political philosophy with the founding ideals of the United States.  The national motto is Bhinneka Tunggal Ika, which is the Jawa Halus version of E Pluribus Unam.  If you don't read Javanese or Latin, it translates as "Unity in Diversity."  The Pancasila, or "Five Points," constitute the national ideals.  They can be summed up as:

1. One Nation under God
2. Equal Protection of the Law
3. Allegiance to the Flag
4. The Republic for which it Stands
5. Liberty and Justice for

Despite these espoused ideals, the governor of Jakarta has been on trial for "blasphemy" for the past several months, and was soundly defeated in the recent election, because he is of Chinese descent, a Christian, and dared to quote al-Qur'an while giving a talk.

What, you might rightly ask, did Ahok say about al-Qur'an that could land him in jail for the next 2 to 5 years?  It must have been a terrible thing to be called blasphemy, right?

Well, basically he quoted a verse that forbids Muslims from submitting to religious oversight by "infidel" faiths.  Ahok pointed out that it says nothing about politics, and that religion and politics should be separate entities.  A video of the talk was edited to twist the context and quote, making it appear that Ahok had insulted al-Qur'an and used its words in a profane manner.

During the trial, the editor admitted he deliberately twisted the words, the head of the Ministry of Religion (MUI) testified that Ahok did not blaspheme, and a number of academics said that Ahok's interpretation was more or less correct.

Yet, the trial has been used by extremist groups seeking to overthrow the administration of the current president Joko Widodo (a populist) and install someone much friendlier to military authority, all in the name of battling "communism".

It's all terribly complex, so please read Peter Levenda, Joseph Farrell and Allan Nairn for perspective and context.

You are probably asking what any of this has to do with readers in the Western hemisphere.  Well...

Joko Widodo and Ahok were elected together as Governor and Vice Governor of Jakarta back in 2012, as populist reformers.  In fact, they were along the leading edge of the Populist Wave that eventually elected Trump and most recently ended in France (we'll see what South Korea does today).  In 2014, Jokowi was elected president and Ahok took over as governor to finish out the term

Even more interesting are the connections that Donald Trump has to all this mess, and Allan Nairn's article sheds some interesting light on the subject.

No matter what happens today, all hell will likely break loose.  The bought-and-paid-for protesters will not be wasted.  If Ahok is convicted, he will likely get probation and the protesters will riot because he didn't go to jail.  If Ahok is not convicted, they will riot because he will be seen as having OJ-Simpson-ed.  Either way, the Powers That Be will get their way.

The spooky parallels and ties between the United States and Indonesia are numerous.  In many ways, Indonesia is like a photographic negative of the US.  Then there are the similarities with the motto, Pancasila and the eagle mascot.  The rabbit hole, however, only starts there.

Stand by.  Indonesia is yet another battle ground in the Globalist war on People Power, and they cannot afford to allow Indonesia - a strategically rich target - to go down the path of true independence.

The fun starts now.

Pins And Needles

The line from the great Bob Dylan ballad, Lilly, Rosemary and the Jack of Hearts, goes, "anyone with anysense had already left town," and that's where things stand in the Indonesian presidential election on this strangely silent night just hours before the polls open.

For those unfamiliar with the country, DKI Jakarta is an actual province of Indonesia, unlike Washington, D.C., which is a bastard child of Maryland and Virginia.  The city has a mayor and a governor, and is the home base of the president, which makes for fun budget meetings.  This little fact will come in to play in a moment, so keep it aside.

For now, let's meet the cast of characters:

In one corner, we have Prabowo, a former general and son-in-law of Suharto, who was dismissed from the army for his role in kidnapping and torturing a number of pro-democracy activists in 1998, during the fall of his daddy-in-law.  He swears he didn't kill anyone, but several of those activists have never been seen again.  Prabowo spent a decade in exile in Jordan, was refused entry to the US to see his son's graduation, and is widely suspected of having a role in the Timor L'Este massacre and the Bali bombing.

In the other corner is a populist reformer called Jokowi.  This guy was governor of Yogyakarta, then governor of Jakarta and is credited with cleaning up graft and corruption, and stream-lining governments where he has been in charge.  His oratory skills are lacking and he has, in classic political fashion, promised the Moon if elected, but he is known as a man of the people and has often been found with sleeves rolled up down among the people.

And this, as they say, is the choice.  Some background:

First, the election laws were changed a couple of years ago to say that only parties or coalitions that had achieved 20% of the parliamentary vote several months before could field a candidate for president.  Next, the law was recently changed to allow winner take all, rather than having a simple majority.  Finally, only a Muslim is allowed to be president, despite the fact that the Constitution recognizes five religions equally and there is a substantial and growing minority of the other four.

The net result is that we now have the classic left/right horse race that the PTB so enjoy, rather than true democracy.  The need for a run-off has been elminated, making it far easier to steal the election (a time-honored tradition here), and Jokowi's Chinese Christian Vice Governor in both Yogyakarta and late in Jakarta could not be on the same ticket because of his religion.  He is, however, now the first minority governor of Jakarta, which is no small feat.

The reason so many people have left/are leaving is that Prabowo has openly said that if he is not elected, he will burn the country down, if elected he will roll back the Constitution to the 1948 pre-amended version that allowed Suharto to take hold for 30 yeats, and that he doesn't think much of all this Western influence around here, though he sent his son to attend college in the States.  According to his statements, he believes that spending ten billion rupiah alone means he deserves the post, regardless of whether anyone wants him there or not.

So, as we mentioned at the outset, anyone with any sense has already left town.  Folks here are widely anticipating riots if the election doesn't go one way, and a rather dark future for Indonesia if it does go another.  The value of the rupiah has fallen 20% since the beginning of the year.  Foreign investment has beaten a path to the exit.  And local investors have been sitting on their wallets and shopping for real estate in Australia for the past three months.  It appears that not everyone is feeling confident passed today.

Oh, did we mention that Probowo's own brother, a Christian convert, has been speaking out against him and has also stated that he will leave the country if his brother is elected.

Like Janus, we sit here with one face in the future and one in the past, wondering if Indonesia will continue the reforms of the past 15 years, or throw it all out and start from square one.  It would seem that the wildly prosperous new middle class would chose to move forward, but it appears that there is still a strong backlash against just leaving people alone and letting them get about with their lives.  In short, it is a microcosm of the forces at war in the world at large.

One the one hand are the forces of fascism and iron-fisted government, and on the other are those of laissez-faire and freedom to choose one's own path in life.  It would seem that World War III will be a continuation of World War II, which itself was the direct result of World War I.  Perhaps future historians will call this period the Second Hundred Years' War.  Certainly, the Middle East mess, particularly Iraq, is the result of T. E. Lawrence's meddling at the behest of his masters in the West during WW1, and the alignment of parties worldwide is seemingly following those of WW2.  The one hacke in der sacke is the rising affluence of Asia in this sequel.

Indeed, this whole mess sounds like a PTB film franchise with everyone eagerly awaiting the explosive conclusion of the trilogy of films in this particular story arch.

One thing we can say for certain is that the internet around here has been a conplete mess for the past 24 hours, leading one to assume that someone is trying to control the flow of information to and from the outside.  We may bave to crank up TOR just to publish this installment of the Far Side saga.

In any event the results of our election here bear watching even by those with no obvious iron in the fire.  Indonesia has become a powerful force in regional events, and a growing one worldwide.  It makes for a fine canary in the coal mine for those seeking a taste of things to come.  As for us, we are firmly planted and in it for the full ride.  We suggest the proper reaction at this point is malaise-faire.

One need only look closely at the national emblem of Indonesia back at the top.  You may recognize the phoenix, commonly used by countries that are franchises of the PTB.  Further, notice the logo at his feet, which translated from Sanskrit means, "Out of many one," or e pluribus unam.  We further draw your attention to the red and white stripes of the flag, which symbolizes ownership by the British East India Company (look it up...).  That's what we're up again around here.

Perhaps we will take a further clue from Dylan's classic ballad and, "move into the corner, face-down like the Jack of Hearts."

And the winner is...