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15.9.20

Drinking The Qool-Aid

Note: the list of previous articles on this topic has moved to the end of the page.

UPDATE 11OCT20: Radio Far Side will host a livestream discussion of the Q Phenomenon on 13OCT20, with guests Joseph P. Farrell and Catherine Austin Fitts.  Join us for this special event: Q & the Qult - A Multi-Spectrum Analysis.

 UPDATE 26SEP20: Out long-standing thesis that the current global situation is an elite turf war seems to be catching on.

The title of this article is a layered allusion, including both Jim Jones' Guyana cult and the deadly Kool-Aid now known irreverently as Guyana Punch, and Tom (The Right Stuff) Wolfe's 1968 book The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, in which Ken (One Flew Over the Cuckoos's Nest) Kesey and his band of Merry Pranksters drove across the US in a school bus, doing LSD and mushrooms while seeking enlightenment.

These are apt allusions for the Qniverse, as the three-year-old psy-op has expanded internationally.  The global spread of Q primarily encompasses Western countries, but is not limited to them.

A recent article received some play in the corporate media, likening QAnon to the spread of the COVID-19 virus.  This is not entirely disingenuous, as memetics researchers of popular culture have long equated cultural memes to viral infections.  In fact, even the term "viral" has long been used to describe certain content that suddenly receives mass attention, as with fads or pop stars.

Please note that Q and QAnon are not the same thing.  Q is a psy-op, likely based on a strange internet phenomenon years ago called Cicada 3301.  It only posts as "Q" on 8kun in the "Patriots Fight" board, of which it is the only member.

If Q is the cause, then QAnon is the effect.  QAnon is what the followers of Q call themselves, and which I call Qvians.  The world as they see it is what I refer to as the Qniverse.  Q "drops" information on 8kun, which is then interpreted by the Apostles and Acolytes, and distributed through the Priesthood to the masses.

I deliberately use religious terms and symbolism, because the Q Phenomenon resembles in many disturbing ways a religious movement and hierarchy.  I have detailed this idea in several previous posts, all linked at top.



I have also likened the Qvians to a Personality Cult, or Qult, as early as March of 2019.  This has been picked up by the corporate media in the past couple of weeks, with tones of panic and fear.  However, since they have only taken my idea and not the research behind it, they really have no clue what they are talking about.

The Qult is by no means violent or dangerous - at least not yet.  What terrifiess the Establishment and the corporate media is that Q represents a new age of information dispersal that they will never understand nor be able to participate in.  And it is effectively countering their narratives as fast as they launch them.

This is the primary appeal of Q, and its most dangerous aspect.

Like the alien message in the Jody Foster film Contact, Q data is a multi-dimensional puzzle.  Each drop is its own message, but using visual and textual cues, the drops can be arranged to form additional layers of messaging.

This is also the connection to Cicada 3301.  Multi-layered puzzles, once decoded, provide clues to other puzzles, which then are "stacked" to provide more clues or solutions to past puzzles.

Essentially, Q is a training technology for an entirely new form of communication.  Ut us not a passive medium, like radio, movies or TeeVee.  Instead, it challenges followers to think multi-contextually, much like the titles of my articles.  The "receivers" are forced to think and research to fully understand the messages being relayed by Q.

Q delivers messages in batches, much like the nearly 100 drops in the past two weeks, then it goes silent to analyze what parts of the messages have been received and how the information is being distributed.  It then formulates new drops to "steer" the conversation either to past information that was missed, or to new information for processing.

Just as with any hierarchical system, there are those privy to the inner circule, and layers of followers down to those with only the most superficial understanding.  There is an initiation phase, in which the initiate must learn the Qvian "code," read the more than 4,700 drops to date, and learn to interpret the messages

If Q was the Freemasons, most Qvians would be in the Blue Lodge of the first 3 degrees, while a select few advance to the 33rd degree, with full access to Q deepest revelations.

Q's wide appeal is based on the dopamine response, similar to computer games and social media.  Solving puzzles and announcing one's findings to the wider Qniverse provides that critical burst of pleasure and pride that is addictive.  This is evident when Q goes into "listening mode".  The Qvians quickly start wringing their hands and wondering when the next drops will come, while going back and reparsing previous drops for hidden information.

While in "listening mode," Q is mapping networks of chatter, cataloging what is being said, and predicting behavior in both the real and vitual worlds basedd on a technology similar to clif high's webbots, combined with a powerful data mining function that creates virtual "persons" with the habits and personalities of those reacting to its drops.

Q is essentially like many marketing systems used by the big firms, but vastly more powerful.  When we surf the internet, small bits of code follow us around, log our activities, measure how long our eyes are fixed on any one item, determine which ads catch our attention, aand even follow us around the real world to see where we shop, dine and entertain ourselves.  They build an avatar of us that can be manipulated to, in turn, manipulate us.

Imagine that technology, along with aspects we don't want to imagine, backed by bottomless funding, and incomprehensible processing power and infinite storage and modeling capacity.

That is Q.

What's even more fascinating, if not frightening, is that Q has convinced the Qvians that it is one man, in close proximity to Donald Trump and working in concert with him to provide "transparency" that circumvents the corporate media.  Few, if any, can conceive of Q being a vast marketing and surveillance operation that is invading and steering their thoughts.

Q is siphoning eyeballs away from the corporate media.  At a meta level, the events of 2020 have been a clash between the dying mass media, represented by the Democrats and the Left in the US, and the rise of the interactive media of the future, represented by the Republicans and the Right in the US.

Americans are generally unaware of it, but the entire world is going through the same process to varying degrees.  There is a clash of historic proportions taking place, and like all of them in history, there are those who fear and fight, and those who adapt and adopt.  Humans are merging with their technology is a way few have foreseen.  A kind of hive mind is emerging, where we are no longer independent actors, but the sum of the media we consume.

The horse became the internal combustion engine.  The blacksmith became the mechanic.  The green grocer because the grocery store, which became the mall.  Metal money became paper money, which became plastic, and now is a QR code.  Technological change seems inevitable, and the old systems will always fight the new, until the new seems indispensible to our lives.

Q is the nascent form of a wildly new and strange technology.  It is teaching followers to think a new way and manipulating the Qvians with a power few are cognizant of.  While it is clearly and increasingly manipulating popular culture in its favor, it may also be planting the seeds of its antithesis.  Herein lies the rub.

As Sun Tzu teaches us, the best way to defeat an enemy is to control every aspect of how the enemy will react.

Q manipulates the Qvians into thinking and acting in certain ways, while at the same time "predicting" how the "enemy" will react.  This technique is essentially a digital box canyon.  The "enemy" is led into a range of predictable reactions, which are easily countered since Q created the entire scenario to begin with.

The Qvians get their shot of dopamine, feeling as if they've been part of a victory.  The "enemy" is trapped by its own actions.  And Q gets the reputation of being prescient, even prophetic.

It is entirely plausible and possible that everything occurring in the US right now, and worldwide, is being orchestrated by Q to achieve whatever end it is seeking.  Q is doing this by drawing together religion, politics, media, pop culture, and technology.  It parses history and current events through the filter of human nature, then carefully calibrates what information to inject to cause predictable outcomes.

This, dear reader, is why I am both fascinated and terrified by Q - enough so to spend three years studying and writing about it.

I suspect, with good reason, that we are all being engineered, not just by Q, but by competing systems as well.

And here we arrive full circle back at the Qool-Aid.


8.9.20

The Qult Ascendant




UPDATE 11SEP20: Qmap.pub taken offline after webmaster doxxed and report stalks him. Why so much establishment fear of QAnon?

UPDATE 14SEP20: It appears Q is going viral, with significant Q groups in 70 countries.

In March of 2019, I identified the Q Phenomenon as a cult, or as I called it, The Qult.  I did not create this label as a hyperbolic hook, but rather based on history and psychological studies of the topic of Personality Cults.  The Q Phenomenon meets all the standards for a Personality Cult, which uses next-generation technology and techniques to create, maintain and promote the Qult.

We should note that the Qult refers to itself as QAnon, or increasingly as digital soldiers.  Members vehemently deny being part of a cult, but as we will see, they meet all the criteria.

The corporate media apparently read my articles and about a month ago picked up on the cult theme, but not the reasoning and proofs behind it.  They did so without attribution as usual.  They are throwing labels at "QAnon," but they have not read the Q Drops and have not studied the Phenomenon, thus their articles come off as hollow and hysterical.  They don't cite the methods Q uses, or the psychology, or the history to show how and why the Q Phenomenon has become The Qult.

Let's begin by defining the primary characteristics of a Personality Cult.  Keep in mind that different researchers use different terms and markers, but the following is a fair summary of the most often cited studies:


  1. Personality Cults appeal primarily to males, 
  2. they seek to indoctrinate the entire population and not isolated segments, 
  3. they employ and dominate mass media,
  4. they employ a persecution complex to enhance unity and cohesion, and
  5. have a central figure or leader with god-like status.
Historically, Julius Caesar was probably the first modern-style Personality Cult.  The Caesar Cult meets all the above criteria if we assume public art was essentially the mass media of the pre-electric age.  We also know that Julius Caesar was deified, and the entire population of Rome was encouraged to worship him.

In the past century, Adolph Hitler is an obvious example of a Personality Cult.  In recent US history, Ronald Reagan fits the bill as a Personality Cult.  He has even achieved a form of secular sainthood among some political factions.  Reagan was a master of image and media manipulation.  His folksy wit, patriotic platitudes and his prim media image attracted millions worldwide, and his name is still spoken in reverent tones.

Similar Personality Cults were attempted around William Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, but the men at the center of these efforts failed morally, intellectually and behaviorally to live up to the image that was manufactured.

Obama came closest to achieving a cult.  Early in his administration, he was constantly photographed with a halo of light.  He was given the Nobel Peace Prize before he had achieved anything worthy of the trophy.  Schools forbade speaking his name in vane.  Had he not quickly gained a reputation killing and corruption, his cult might have succeeded.

With Reagan, the image that was created and sold to the masses was that of the Great Communicator.  Only he could dominate the global stage and bring the evil USSR to heel.  Only he could repair the damage to the American Image inflicted by Richard Nixon and James Carter.  Reagan's "sainthood" was assured because he essentially achieved the goals of rebuilding the US economy, subduing the USSR, and bringing peace and plenty to the world.  We could argue actual results for hours, but the image survives 40 years later.

In contrast, no one believed that Clinton told the truth, that G. W. Bush was intelligent, or that Obama had America's interests at heart.  Not only did the personal foibles of these men prevent their cults from succeeding, but they were not media savvy and didn't understand the power of the technology.

Marketing is all about perceptions and manipulating them to create desired and predictable outcomes in mass populations.

This brings us to Donald Trump and the Q Psy-Op.

To briefly recap the Q Mythology, Trump was recruited by US military intelligence services (chosen by God) to root out corruption and "drain the swamp" (bring Salvation), and re-establish American cultural, economic and military dominance on the world stage (bring forth the Kingdom of Heaven), while inserting Judeo-Christian morality back into public life (hand down the Law).

My Q Theory is that it is a psy-op run by a group within the Global Engagement Center (GEC) of the US State Department, which is creating a Personality Cult around Trump in order to effect changes on the political and geopolitical stage, and insert a favorable ideology to counter the Globalist regime Iturf wars).  Q has established itself as an invisible force that is all-knowing and all-powerful (God) that guides followers by clarifying current events (preaching) and foretelling future events (prophesy).  Q has enlisted a powerful set of data mining and media tools, with a media savvy spokesman (Trump) to by-pass and subvert the formidable barrier of the corporate media.

With this background, let's examine the Qult using the criteria listed at top.

The Qult does indeed appeal to males.  Qvians are predominantly male.  This is not to say that females are not involved, but they do not dominate the public discourse as the males do.  This is primarily due to the military meme used by Q as a recruiting tool, and to the manufactured image of Trump as an "alpha male" stereotype.  Tis appeals to Western males, who rightly believe they have been emasculated by the popular culture for many years.

The Qult is fixated on power, strength, cunning, and duty, which are male characteristics.  It is interesting to note that Q promotes dominance and action, while at the same time commanding followers to be "digital soldiers," "enjoy the show" and do research - passive activities, which are female characteristics.  

I am not sure why this is so, but I suspect it is a recruiting tool.  The message is that if you want to be active, join the corps, as in the actual US military.  It may also be building anger by creating a desire to act, while subverting the ability at the same time.  Certainly, anger is a powerful force when channeled at selected targets.

The Qult seeks to indoctrinate the entire population.  The Qult sees itself as not just a national, but a global movement.  The Qvians see themselves as agents for clearing out corruption everywhere, and they believe it is achievable by ending human and drug trafficking, bribery and insider trading, and money laundering.  

Q has convinced the Qult that these are achievable goals, though at no time in human history have they been realized.  Wherever power and money concentrate, corruption always follows.  The only way to achieve these goals would be to disperse power and money as thinly as possible, which sounds much like the Leftist ideology of absolute "equality".

If we apply the religious metaphor that I use, the Qult might be analogous to the Inquisition or the Protestant Reformation.

The Qult could not exist without mass media.  It depends entirely on the use of websites, video and podcast platforms, message boards, and increasingly broadcasst television, as the number of reports continues to grow, regardless of emotional content (positive, negative, indifferent).  It is this latter item that is most interesting, in that Q seems to be forcing itself into public discourse by cornering the corporate media into talking about it.  In the words of P. T. Barnum, "There's no such thing as bad publicity."

The Q Commentators provide several vital functions: fostering cohesiveness, interpreting events in light of prophesy, and re-enforcing messaging amd consensus.  These are crucial to creating a group identity and enforcing a unified message across time and space.

It is essential that individual Qvians know there are other believers in the population, that they are having similar thoughts and experiences, and share common belief systems.  This creates an esprit de corps that enhances bonds between people who would otherwise be separated by physical, social or political boundaries.

The Qult uses the various media platforms to proselytize and maintain cohesion.  Isolated individuals are rarely able to maintain unconventional views when surrounded by those with "normal" beliefs.  The media provide the vital reassurance one needs to be empowered and persevere.

The media allow the Qvians to harmonize goals and objectives, and widely distribute messaging.  Given that the Qult views itself as a global movement, the mass media are the cheapest and most effective means to focus energies over a vast geographical and cultural landscape.  Use of media can expand or narrow goals and objectives across widely dispersed elements in near real-time.

The most intriguing aspect of the Q Phenomenon, in my view, is that it is almost entirely virtual.  There are no conventions, rallies or marches in the Name of Q.  It is one of the first true digital cults that I am aware of.

The Qult maintains a seige mentality.  One of the most effective marketing tools is the "circle the wagons' effect.  When a group of people who share common bonds feel threatened, they tend to form defensive patterns, temporarily putting aside internal differences to fight an external threat.

With Donald Trump as the central figure in the Personality Cult, we don't need to look far to see ample evenidence of persecution.  The Qult has taken Trump and Q as personal saviors, and with the years-long investigations, impeachment, assassination attempts, and near-universal negative coverage of both Trump and Q in the corporate media, they interpret this as personal attacks and instinctively rally, even virtually,setting aside personal differences or grievances until the threat is eliminated.

Trump and Q have been deified.  Trump has been widely, if quietly, been given the status of god-emperor.  He is commonly said within the Qult to be as great or greater than George Washington.  One only needs to look at the rotunda of the US capitol to see what status Washington has.  Trump seems well on his way to achieving apotheosis in the Qult.

Q is quoted as a kind of Gospel, with Drops numbered and studied for occult messages and hidden wisdom.  In Qult discussions, Q is said to know everything (surveillance), be unhindered by physical or political boundaries (virtual presence), and capable of manipulating human events to achieve Its Will (legal prosecution).

Q often quotes Biblical scriptures and encourages faith in God.  In practice, the Qult has at least equated if not replaced God with Q.  The two entities share common attribues and mythologies at the meta level, and both seek the redemption of Humanity by rooting out evil in all its forms for all time (Enlightenment).

As is the case with all cults, the Qult has set up a firewall in the minds of followers that prevents them from objective self-reflection.  Because they are right and good in their self-image, there can be no internal dialog concerning the hows and whys of the Qult.  In other words, the perception of personal virtue is transferred to the whole.  

When confronted with objective analysis, some will laugh it off as absurd and others will become angrily defiant and defensive, but curiously they all repeat similar phrases in their defense, meaning the responses are programmed at some subconscious level.  It is analogous to religious apologetics that dismiss inconsistencies and incongruities with hand-waiving and rote platitudes.

This highlights the final point concerning insider language and similar identifiers.  All cults develop a "shadow language," or a kind of short-hand that identifies and separates initiates from outsiders.  Key phrases like WWG1WGA, The Storm and The Plan are simple, innocuous sounding terms that are packed with meaning - a verbal wink and a nod.  This is a common feature of religions, secret societies and revolutionary plotters.

In a sense, we are all guilty of this.  Jargon within various business sectors functions the same way.  We all use verbal short-hand and insider syntax to identify other professionals and eliminate pretenders and neophytes.  With cults, though, this tendency takes on a certain mystical flavor, with the jargon serving as a kind of sacred vocabulary.

Because Personality Cults rely on a sage mentality, they also rely on security and identifying sympathetic insiders.  They learn not to speak freely to avoid detection and persecution, and thus have coded language that lets them know when they are in "safe" company.  This is no different from the trope of spies using identifier phrases.

In an environment where Trump supporters are literally being killed, much less harassed and persecuted, the Sacred Language is truly a matter of life and death.  This has been true throughout history, and is the origin of many secret societies.

In closing, it must be pointed out that the term QAnon is the self-identifier for the Qult, and the entity they follow is known only as "Q".  When the corporate media attack QAnon, the reporter is obviously, willfully or not, ignorant of the subject they are reporting on.

In all of the mainstream reports I have seen, the reporters constantly refer  to QAnon and quote Twitter messages, Facebook posts and other social media, but they never quote Q or reference the Drops, which is the primary source.  This is essentially playing into plausible deniability, and I can't believe all reporters are this stupid - or can I?

This is akin to ridiculing Christians, while never referencing the Gospels or theology.  A term like "body of Christ" (Corpus Christi) sounds nonsensical without the context behind it, and perhaps that is what the reporters are after, though they are defeating themselves - unless it is deliberate, but that is a different article.

Without the context, no one can understand the depth and seriousness of the Qult, thus it is easily dismissed as some whacky "conspiracy theory".  One cannot appreciate the passion of Qult members unless one understands the many interwoven threads that create the tapestry.

Given Q's now-three year history and the rise of the Qult, the next Big Question we will address is: Did the appearance of the Q Psy-Op precipitate current events in the US?

Stay tuned...

6.9.20

White Lies, Damn Lies And Statistics

Mark Twain's famous quote about the three kinds of lies is one of those undeniable folksy truisms that stands the test of time.

If you read this entire article, I promise by the end you will be able to find at least five major errors in almost every article and newscast that quotes statistics, and be able to invalidate all the misinformation you are being fed, to the amazement and delight of your friends and family.

You are being manipulated, and what follows is precisely how it is being done.

It is safe to say most people in the world have not been trained to reason statistically.  It is an arcane branch of mathematics, and includes such things as demography, public health, political science, and media ratings.  It is for the latter reason that I was forced into a Statistical Reasoning class at university, as part of my Communications degree.

It came in handy for a significant part of my career, where I spent several years writing, producing and editing medical videos for major hospitals and pharmaceutical companies.  In the course of that work, I had to digest medical statistics and express them in terms that lay people could grasp, and as they say, the best way to learn something is to teach it.

When analyzing statistical results, one must have a baseline or control group, a representative sample in both size and demographic representation, and a great many controls on the methods of data collection and analysis.

It should be noted that in some cases, it is impossible to establish a baseline or control group, such as climatology, where the sample is the entire lifespan of Earth.  In these cases, the rules for gathering and analyzing data are even more stringent and the process much more complex.

In short, how you ask the question, and how you interpret the answers are vital to receive a usable result.  Statistics can be an invaluable tool to discover truth, but they can also be a horrific weapon to hide it.  How one randomizes a sample across dozens of variables to ensure a truly representative group is a very complex and tricky process.  It is wide open  to accidental and intentional bias.

A good study will tell the reader sample size and methodology by which the sample was determined, as well as the exact question(s) and methods used to collect the data.

A valid study will produce a value called a, or alpha, and one called p, or p-value.  These are probability tests that determine whether the original question, or hypothesis, was valid.  Both these numbers will be between 0 and 1, with 1 being absolute certainty, and 0 being the "null" hypothesis.  You should never see a value of 1 in any statistics, since absolute certainty is impossible in REAL science.

Alpha is the level of confidence in the validity of a test.  In other words, this number measures the objectivity of a test design.  A value of >0.05 for alpha is the standard that good studies shoot for, which is better than 95% probability of the hypothesis being true.

P-value measures the randomness of a phenomenon.  A low p-value tells us the probability that a test is free of bias, and that the phenomenon was not caused by the test or the person collecting the data.

In the end, if p is less than or equal to a, then we can be fairly confident that a phenomenon is real and that our guess about what causes it is accurate.  Remember that we can never achieve absolte certainty.  At best, we can only be "pretty damn sure".

In any case, the margin of error is vital to analyzing statistics.  Through a series of calculations involving sample size, test design and other variables, we arrive at the error rate.  This will always be a plus/minus value, telling us for any data point, the actual number could be within a range, such as +/-3%.  On a graph, this will create the famous "candlestick" result, with lines extending up and down from a point showing the full range of error.

The next three tools we need to analyze statistics are the mean, median and mode.  This is where statistics get fun, and often where the bullshit factor can be found.  This is precisely why these three values are also almost never reported in any news report citing statistics.

A statistical mean is simply the dead center of the data, with an equal number of points being above and below that value.  The primary problem with this number is that a sampling error can mistakenly shift the mean up or down.  Thus, the median can be more useful.


The median is a range of values that tells us where the average middle is, versus the average extremes.  In other words, mean income would be the center point of all incomes everywhere, while the median range tells us what constitutes the "middle class".  As a rule of thumb, the median is typically the middle 50% of all results, with the 25% extreme groups on either side.

The mode is most easily understood as the most likely answer to any question in data collection.  The mode is normally an a priori assumption that tests the randomness of a sample.  If the results do not match the mode, then there is a problem with the test design or the way the question is asked.

When you are told about polling results, climate models or health information, and these values/tools are not revealed, then you can rest assured that everything you are being told is complete and utter bullshit.  Without knowing the sample size, margin of error, mean, median and mode for any result or graph, then there is no way to analyze the objectivity and significance of the results.  It is meaningless noise without the tools.

The GeezerMedia feed on the ignoance of the masses by showing lots of pretty graphs and spiffy animations, and sometimes they might even include the sample size and margin of error, just to hook those with a bit more sophistication.  However, if we are not told the alpha, p-value and mode, there is no way for us to gauge the objectivity of the questions asked, nor the probability of the result being correct and/or in any way real.

The final Big Lie with statistics is the way in which the results are graphed.  How the data is visually laid out has a lot to do with how they relate to reality and our perception of the results.

The first thing we should always look at when confronted with a graph is whether the axes start at zero and contain the full range of possibilities.  In other words, a graph of a political poll must show all possible choices/candidates on the X-axis, and the total number of potential voters on the Y-axis.  If not, the graph is meaningless and likely hiding something from you, or manipulating your perception of the results.

Any graph that does not have a zero or null point is complete garbage and should be ignored with prejudice.

If one zooms in on part of the data for greater clarity and detail, there must be break marks in the x, y and z axes, and in any case all the axes must start at zero.  It must also follow a complete graph so that the perspective is not lost.  In every case where zero is not shown, someone is trying to pass off a giant load of bullshit by exaggerating the relevance of the information.

This is where nearly all graphs of climate data fail - usually on purpose.  For instance, if temperature data is not graphed with the X-axis showing all of Earth's existence, and the Y-axis showing ALL possible temperatures on Earth, then the perceived relevance of any rise or fall is completely warped.

So, how does all of this help us right now?  Glad you asked.

Statistics have been pawned off on the general public as being definitive measures of political moods, climate change and health information.  In nearly every case I have ever seen, much less this year, nearly every aspect of statistical analysis is violated.  All of the above-listed tools must me present with every single study or it is just bullshit - eye candy, fear mongoring or deliberate misinformation.

One particularly good example of bullshit statistics is the Real Clear Politics graph of the spread between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.  If you look at the bottom left corner of the graph, the first value is 40, not zero.  Then we notice that all of the possible candidates for president and their results are not listed on the X-axis, and the total possible votes are not given on the Y-axis.

What we are given is a percentage, but no table of real numbers from which the percentages are calculated, and in any case, the Y-axis does not go to 100%.

Therefore, the visual impression is that the spread is enormous, whereas the real numbers are essentially the same on a full scale.  Also, without the error range (candlesticks), we cannot see the full range of probabilities and the overlap (if any) of the results.

The graph makes it look like Biden has a significant lead, but if we assume a margin of error of 3%, then Biden is at 46.6, and Trump at 45.6, which is about as close to a dead heat as one can get.

We also have a total result of 92.2% out of a possible 100%.  Where's the other 7.8%?  Is it rounding error, other candidates, 'none of the above' answers?  That's a significant amount of missing data.

Furthermore, we must assume that the Y axis has a total possible value of 100, without voting fraud.  If the graph began at zero and ended at 100, the two lines would be visually the same, even without the margin of error.

We also note that the graph is based on the Poll of Polls below it.  Here we see that sample sizes are between 800 and 4,000, out of a potential base of 140 million (one doesn't even have this information), and the margins of error range from 2% to 4%.  Furthermore, we know nothing about how the samples were taken, or whether the polls all used the same criteria.

For all we know, this graph is a puree of apples and oranges.  In fact, we know this is true because some of the polls used Likely Voters (LV), some used Registered Voters (RV), some used both, and some used general opinion.

Nowhere on the page are we told the alpha, p-value, median, mean, or mode values.  We don't know what the exact questions were, how they match up across the polls, how well the a priori assumptions matched the actual results, or whether the probabilities have any relation to reality.

Even more basic than the analysis tools is the method by which the data were obtained.  What is the baseline?  How were the questions worded (bias - are you voting for Joe Biden or one of the other guys)?  How was the sample randomized - bias in geography (all in New York, urban/rural), demography (all Democrats, all atheists), etc,?  How were the results obtained - in-person, telephone, internet, etc.?  Do these criteria match across all polls used to obtain the final result?  Did they all use the same criteria for randomizing the samples?  Each variable introduces a bias that must be addressed.

In other words, this entire page is bullshit and completely worthless for analysis.

Let's look at another headline stealer that truly needs some objectivity - SARS-COV-2.

To begin with, the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has admitted that the process for collecting data concerning deaths from the virus have been flawed.  Their criteria have not been consistent, and thus the results are at best questionable and the probabilities are highly skewed.

More than that, let's examine some of the underlying assumptions of the whole issue:

  • First, what are the criteria and methods for determining that the virus exists at all?
  • Second, what are the criteria and methods for determining the symptomology and associating it with this particular virus?
  • Third, what are the design and analyses that underlie the validity of any of the tests for this virus?
  • Fourth, what are the criteria and methods for determining the effectiveness of social distancing, masks, vaccines, treatments, etc.?
  • Fifth, what is the baseline or control group value used to determine the validity of any tests (p-value)?

These questions are very important.  Since testing has never been done on the scale now being attempted, how do we know the results are not perfectly average in any given year?  What is the average result for mass testing for corona viruses?  If we don't know that data, then there is no way to know whether the current results are in any way unusual, and thus we have no way to tell if there is a real pandemic, whether the SARS-COV-2 virus is causing it, or whether the virus exists in the first place.

In addition, do the tests discriminate between the seven types of corona viruses that we consider "normal" or known (common cold, etc.).  I have found no data that shows any of the tests discriminate between types of corona virus.  In fact, the PCR test commonly used only amplifies DNA traces, and has no ability to separate ANY virus from another.

There are literally thousands of variables and assumptions nested one inside the other to claim that the world is under a pandemic situation.  Everything from electron microscopy and DNA/RNA analysis, to confidence in test results, protective measures and treatments is wide open for debate.  Recall that statistics can never produce absolute certainty, and every assumption or variable has its own level of uncertainly, compounded on all the others.

Telling us something is true is not equivalent to showing us, using all the above criteria to analyze the results.  Saying the issue is vulnerable to bias and corruption is a vast understatement.

Real science, be it political polling, virology and medicine, or climatology are all open for debate at all times.  At the very best, statistics provide us with a level of confidence that we see a real cause-and-effect phenomenon, but we can never obtain 100%.  It's impossible.  Even an alpha of 0.01% still has doubt, no matter how much we want to believe it is absolute truth.

In research as complicated as political polling and virology, we only need to prove one case that does not follow the results to disprove the whole argument.  If the results do not match every single instance of reality and predict future outcomes in every case, then the underlying assumptions are wrong.

In the case of political polling, the results of the Trump v. Clinton election tell us there is an underlying inherent flaw in the methodology, whether is is bias or structural.  With SARS-COV-2, we are told that its RNA is 75% similar to SARS-COV-1, but how do we know that (sample, methods, etc.)?  There are enough holes in both arguments to make the results look like Swiss cheese.

Always keep this in mind: to be in any way valid and true, every use of statistics must tell you the sample size and origin, the alpha and p-value, the median, mean and mode, and any accompanying graphs must start at zero and show the total possible causes (X-axis) and total possible effects (Y-axis) in the set being studied (total voters, total cases, etc.).  If any one of these elements is missing, you are being intentionally lied to or accidentally misled, pure and simple.  There are no exceptions.

To paraphrase the American philosopher William James, if you want to disprove the rule that all crows are black, you need only to produce one crow that is not.

Now return to the graph at top, which was actually published in an article about climate change, and see how many errors you can find.

3.9.20

The Real Sickness of Official Dumb

Jakarta's so-called "officials" have taken to making people lie in a coffin in public, in addition to a $29 fine, for not wearing a mask in public.  Not only are these bozos and buffoons completely clueless about the studies and science regarding the use of mask - and likely being paid by WHO and other NGOs to promote this crap - they are relishing their imaginary power.

Since blasphemy is still a crime in Indonesia, punishable by jail sentences up to 2 years, it is now appropraite to counter-charge these noneheads for their profound lack of faith in Allah's mercy, wisdom and grace.  Forcing folks to wear masks and take medical treatments flies in the face of Allah's Great Plan for Humanity, and they are thus blasphemous.

If they can throw the former governor Ahok in jail for nothing more than quoting the Koran, then this is much, much worse.